Race, Culpability, and Defendant Plea-Bargaining Decisions: An Experimental Simulation

There are various factors that influence the psychology behind a defendant’s decision to plead guilty. Prior research indicates that the likelihood of conviction, the potential trial penalty, and the culpability of the defendant are factors which impact a defendant’s decision to accept a plea deal. This study specifically focused on how a defendant’s race and culpability affect the plea decision, both independently and in conjunction with one another. The results indicated that culpability significantly affects a defendant’s decision to plead guilty, as guilty participant-defendants were more likely to agree to a plea deal. However, a notable percentage (32.6%) of innocent participants expressed a desire to plead guilty to receive a lesser sentence. Alternatively, race did not have a significant effect on the decision to plead guilty. The authors explore potential reasons for these findings.

“[I]ndividuals who were randomly assigned to the guilty condition were significantly more likely to take the plea than those who were innocent. . . . [Also,] guilty participants seemed to think the case against them was stronger than innocent participants did, despite the reported evidence against them being held constant across culpability conditions. . . . Unexpectedly, racial differences in plea bargaining decisions did not emerge.” p. 104-05