Plea Discounts or Trial Penalties? Making Sense of the Trial-Plea Sentence Disparities

Researchers often use the terms “trial penalty” and “plea discount” interchangably to describe the difference between a plea sentence and a potential trial sentence. However, this article argues that these terms are two distinct concepts that require different modeling strategies and generate different results. The key difference between the two concepts is whether a trial or plea is being viewed as the default mode of disposition. This study analyzed thousands of cases from New York State through the lens of each concept to test and compare the support for both theories. The results generated support for the existence of both theories, but the relationship between the trial-plea differential and case-relevant factors differed based on which theoretical framework was being employed. These alternative approaches to sentencing differentials indicate a deeper conflict among judges, prosecutors, and defense attorneys regarding the appropriate lens through which to view the norms surrounding plea bargaining.

“[T]here appears to be some support for both frameworks. The findings create a situation where evidence consistent with one framework does not necessarily imply evidence against the other.” p. 1245