Is Plea Bargaining in the ‘Shadow of the Trial’ a Mirage?

This article presents a study on bargaining in the “shadow of the trial.” The study analyzes the probability of conviction for individuals who pleaded guilty. In doing so, the authors examine whether the strength of the evidence against defendants impacts the probability of conviction in the plea bargaining setting, as it does in trials. The results indicate that, unlike in a trial setting, evidentiary factors in the plea-bargaining setting either do not impact or negatively impact the probability of conviction.

“[W]e then showed that although evidence does an excellent and predictable job of explaining the probability of conviction for those who go to trial, evidence cannot similarly explain variation in our estimates of the probability of conviction for those who pled guilty.” p. 451