Commonalities in False Guilty Plea Cases

Wrongful convictions via false guilty pleas (“FGPs”) are a significant issue in the plea bargaining system: nearly 25% of wrongful convictions are the result of FGPs, with around 75% resulting by trial. However, there is little information available as to the commonalities present in FGP cases. This study analyzes dispositional and situational risk factors (e.g., age, race, seriousness of crime, county/state of conviction, sentence length, year of conviction/exoneration, the presence of a co-defendant, and the presence of exculpatory DNA evidence), as well as six canonical factors (eyewitness misidentification, false confessions, perjury/false accusations, forensic science error, official misconduct, and ineffective assistance of counsel) to determine which characeristics are most prevalent in FGP cases compared to wrongful convictions at trial. The results indicated a notable difference between the two types of wrongful convictions, with the presence of false confessions being the most influential factor in FGP cases. Where a false confession is present, defendants are four times more likely to enter a false guilty plea. Moreover, minority status increases the likelihood of wrongful conviction by FGP, as does the presence of less-severe crimes. Understanding the factors that contribute to wrongful convictions by FGP enables judges, prosecutors, and defense attorneys to recognize and prevent the presence of FGPs in the plea-bargaining process.

“[R]egardless of the type of plea entered, it has been well-established that some innocent defendants plead guilty. Similar to false confessions, there are risk factors inherent to the individual (i.e., dispositional) and to the case or circumstances (i.e., situational) that serve to increase the likelihood of false guilty pleas[.]” p. 3